RESUMEN EJECUTIVO

SMEs face uncertainty when deciding what to sell to the government and which regions to focus on. Therefore:

I analyzed +18 million transactions ($1.2B USD) from the Chilean Public Market for a business report for an SME focused on services. I reused the

same database to identify goods and sales opportunities for SMEs.

I filtered 6.5 million records from "Compra Ágil" (an SME-exclusive program) and applied a multidimensional scoring system that reduced 13,000 products to the 100 with the highest

potential: diversified demand (average of 1,700 buyers), national coverage, and 81% with rising prices.

The analysis revealed five key findings about market concentration, price trends, and regional behavior. The most counterintuitive: the market appears stable throughout the year, but each product has its own seasonality—the peaks cancel each other out when aggregated. An SME should plan by product, not by market.

Interactive dashboard with two views: Opportunities by Category (which sector should I focus on?) and Opportunities by Product (which specific product and in which region?).

Conclusion: The market is concentrated but predictable. Three entry routes depending on profile: Mass Commodity (limited capital, high turnover), Specialized (technical capacity, higher margin), or Premium Volume (production scale). The question is no longer "is there an opportunity?" but "which one fits my profile?"

An SME that wants to sell to the government faces three critical questions:

• Which products have real and sustained demand? It is not enough that something has been purchased once.

• Where is that demand? A product may be attractive in Santiago but non- existent in other regions.

• Is it worth entering the market? If prices are falling year after year, margins will erode.

This analysis answers all three questions with data.

BUSINESS PROBLEM

METHODOLOGY - THE FUNNEL

Eliminación de monedas extranjeras, anomalías de precio (umbral $17K) y registros no-bienes → 5.6M registros válidos.

Cleaning and Validation

Filtered by Modality

From the df_unificado database obtained from the report on SMEs with 18 million records, 6.8 million corresponding to "Agile Purchase" (exclusive to SMEs) were isolated.

Pareto Analysis

Optimization through Multidimensional Scoring

Insights Analysis and Visualization

Se aplicó un análisis de Pareto para identificar el % de los productos que concentran el mayor volumen operativo , filtrando a solo 854 productos.

Se desarrolló un modelo de puntuación basado en múltiples variables para seleccionar el "Top 100" de productos críticos

Ponderación: Órdenes (35%) + Compradores únicos (40%) + Tendencia precio (25%) → TOP 100 productos.

Se realizó un análisis exploratorio (EDA) sobre el Top 100 para descubrir patrones de estacionalidad y comportamiento de categorías.

Construcción de un dashboard interactivo diseñado para guiar la toma de decisiones

Hallazgos

1. Extreme Pareto concentration: 12.6% dominates 80% of the market

Insight:Of 13,326 unique products, only 100 (0.75%) account for 26.2% of the transaction amount. The top 5% capture almost 40%.

Business implication: An SME does not need an extensive catalog. Focusing on 3-5 products from the TOP 100 can generate more revenue than diversifying into 50 marginal products.

2. UPWARD price trend: 81% of the TOP 100 have an upward trend

3.Seasonality exists, but it is INDIVIDUAL, not aggregate

5.Diversified demand: low risk of dependency

4.Three regions = 47% of the market, but the extreme regions have less competition

Insight: Of the 100 products selected, 81 show an upward price trend, 16 are stable, and only 3 are downward.

Business implication: The market protects margins. An SME that enters today will not face price erosion in the short term. Products with an upward trend are safer bets.

Insight: 85% of products have moderate monthly variation (CV 20-40%). However, peak months are scattered (uniformity 82.9%): April has 24 products, March 18, May 17, August 12. When added together, the peaks cancel each other out.

Business implication:

• DO NOT plan inventory based on total market seasonality.

• DO plan by specific product: each has its own cycle

• Opportunity: market "valley" months (September, January) can be peak months for specific products

Insight:

• Metropolitan: 26.2%

• Valparaíso: 11.5%

• Biobío: 9.6%

Regions such as Araucanía, Los Lagos, and Los Ríos have consistent demand but fewer active suppliers.

Business implication: Competing in RM requires scale. A regional SME can dominate its area with less investment. Local logistics are a competitive advantage in the south.

Insight: The TOP 100 averages 1,724 unique buyers and 8,899 orders per product. No product depends on fewer than 500 buyers.

Business implication: There is no "king customer" that can bring down a business. Demand is fragmented across hundreds of public institutions. This dramatically reduces commercial risk.

DASHBOARD:

Two levels of analysis

El dashboard permite explorar las oportunidades desde lo general a lo específico, respondiendo las preguntas clave de una PYME en cada nivel.

View 1: Opportunities by Category

Question answered: How is my sector doing? Or which sector should I focus on?

• Available filters: Product category and classification (Mass commodity, Specialized, Small niche)

• Key KPIs: Total orders, amount in millions, total volume

• Details by product: Average price, average purchase order amount, average quantity

• Market fragmentation: View how many buyers each product has, identifying diversified vs. concentrated markets

Question answered: Is this specific product right for me?

• Available filters: Specific product and category

• Product KPIs: Average price, typical quantity, total orders

• Price by region: Graph showing which regions pay the most for the same product

• Buyer details: Name of institution, city, number of orders, and total amount. Allows you to identify potential repeat customers

• Seasonality: Monthly chart showing which months purchases are concentrated in, allowing for inventory and capacity planning

View 2: Opportunities by Product

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Main conclusion

The public procurement market for SMEs in Chile is highly concentrated but predictable. Data from four years reveals clear patterns: a few products dominate the amount, and demand is geographically uneven.

With 81 out of 100 products showing stable or rising prices, demand present in eight regions that account for 80% of the amount, predictable purchasing patterns in three key months, and ratios that reveal room for negotiation, SMEs have sufficient information to make strategic decisions. The question is no longer "is there an opportunity?" but "which opportunity fits my profile and when should I be prepared?"

Recommendations by SME profile

If you are an SME with limited capital and are looking for quick entry → Mass Commodity

• What to expect: Low unit price products ($1,192 median) but high turnover (20 units per order on average)

• Suggested category: Food and Cleaning concentrate this profile

• Advantage: 44 products available, fragmented market with over 2,000 buyers per product

• Risk: Tight margin, requires volume for profitability. Ratio 30.4 indicates extreme outliers that distort expectations

• Specific action: Start in regions outside the RM where there is less competition but consistent demand (Maule, Araucanía, and Los Lagos account for 21.4% of the total).

If you have technical capacity or a differentiated product → Specialized

• What to expect: High unit price ($34,510 median), low quantities (3 units per order)

• Suggested category: Industrial and Machinery, Furniture and Home

• Advantage: 39 products, less competition due to technical barriers. Ratio o f

3.54 indicates a more predictable and stable market

• Risk: Longer sales cycles, may require certifications

• Specific action: Identify repeat buyers on the dashboard and build direct relationships. 81% of TOP products have rising prices

If you have high production capacity → Premium Volume

• What to expect: Medium-high price ($4,106 median) with high volume (20 units)

• Reality: Only 11 products in this quadrant, limited but lucrative opportunity

• Advantage: Combines margin with scale. Quantity ratio o f 5.0 indicates more predictable demand

• Risk: Requires logistical and financial capacity to fulfill large orders

• Concrete action: Evaluate seasonality before committing. Prepare inventory for peak months

If you are exploring or validating the market → Small Niche

• What to expect: Low price ($1,868 median), low quantity (6 units)

• Reality: Only 6 products, the smallest quadrant. Ratio of 23.6 indicates high variability

• Advantage: Low entry risk, ideal for testing the process of selling to the government

• Risk: Limited scale, unpredictable market

• Concrete action: Use as a gateway while identifying opportunities in another quadrant

The analysis focused on price and seasonality, leaving out detailed technical specifications contained in Purchase Orders (POs). Integrating these variables would allow for a more accurate competitive comparison and a deeper understanding of the technical requirements demanded by the market.

LIMITATIONS

Technical Dimensionality and Purchase Attributes

Time Horizon and Predictive Potential

Volumen bais and Niche Opportunities

If you are interested in learning more about these findings or need a detailed report tailored to your specific case, please do not hesitate to contact me. I would be happy to talk with you and help you develop a data strategy that will boost your results.

The sample (2022-2025) is ideal for recent trends, but requires a broader historical window to detect long-term cycles. Expanding this base would allow us to evolve from a descriptive analysis descriptive analysis to a predictive one, anticipating changes in demand.

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By filtering by Pareto, low-volume products that could be strategic for specialized SMEs were excluded. Identifying these "long tail" niches represents an opportunity to diversify the portfolio and find markets with less competition.

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